Initial economic effects from the Iran war have become visible in inflation data coming out of both the Eurozone and the US. Inflation in the Eurozone, for example, rose year on year from 1.9% in February to 2.5% in March, while in the US it increased from 2.4% to 3.3%. In Germany and Switzerland, uncertainty surrounding the war in Iran led to a deterioration in business sentiment, which had previously been improving over a period of several months. The longer the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran persists and the more transport or production capacities for gas, oil, aluminium, helium, fertilisers and other commodities are disrupted, the more pronounced the economic impact is likely to become. This may lead to higher prices and increased inflation or weigh on global economic growth due to supply shortages. 

Currencies

In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar has appreciated since the outbreak of the war in Iran, reversing its losses from earlier in the year. The greenback was supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets. Commodity-linked currencies strengthened in the wake of the Iran conflict. While the Swiss franc initially appreciated following the first weekend of hostilities, it subsequently lost strength after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) signalled an increased willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market.

Bonds

Since the beginning of the war in Iran, government bond yields have risen worldwide. On the one hand, higher oil and energy prices pushed up inflation expectations. On the other, the increased inflation risk led to a reassessment of monetary policy: expectations of interest-rate cuts were scaled back, while interest-rate hikes were priced in more strongly. Credit spreads moved only moderately overall. After widening at the beginning of the conflict, driven by heightened uncertainty and greater demand for safe assets, they stabilised as the situation evolved. Overall, risk premiums remain low by historical standards. This points to still favourable financing conditions for issuers, but offers investors only limited risk compensation. We remain underweight in bonds and are maintaining our neutral duration positioning.

TAA Balanced CHF

Real estate

Indirect real estate investments came under considerable pressure due to turbulence relating to the Iran war and the rise in oil prices. Nevertheless, the market continues to exhibit strong momentum. Several capital increases have been announced again, remaining largely unaffected by the market unrest, with activity even accelerating in March. Since the turn of the year, a total of 20 capital increases have been announced with a total volume of approximately CHF 1.8 billion. Swiss real estate funds remain attractive compared to bonds and, at the same time, exhibit lower volatility than equities. We are therefore maintaining our overweight position.

Equities

The Swiss equity market remains attractive even in the current environment. Its defensive structure, high quality and stability continue to support a compelling allocation. This applies not only to the broader market, but also, in particular, to Swiss small and mid caps, which continue to exhibit attractive structural qualities and selective catch-up potential despite the more challenging environment. At the same time, the international market environment remains fragile. From its peak to hitting its low on 30 March, the MSCI All Country World Index lost around 9.5% of its value. Following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire, the global financial markets recovered noticeably. However, reports of violations and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have kept uncertainty at elevated levels. In this environment, low-volatility US equities fulfilled their defensive role and should be maintained.

Commodities

In the commodity market, gold and energy were most recently under the spotlight. The correction in the gold price can be attributed to several factors. Margin calls led to the sale of gold positions. Higher real interest rates, a stronger US dollar, shifting interest-rate expectations and rising energy prices linked to the Iran conflict added further pressure. Against this backdrop, the gold allocation was reduced by 1%, with partial profit-taking implemented. Once volatility subsides, the underlying fundamentals are expected to continue supporting gold prices. In the energy sector, the ceasefire between the US and Iran led to a correction.

Private markets

The modest recovery in the private markets seen over recent months has been dampened once again by the current geopolitical situation. Despite this, we continue to expect an increase in market activity, albeit at a slower pace than was originally anticipated. Media attention surrounding private debt has eased recently. However, elevated redemption requests in semi-liquid structures are still being observed among certain fund managers. Overall development remains manager- and portfolio-specific, with no current indications of systemic risk. Against this backdrop, we see no need for adjustment and are maintaining the existing strategic allocations.

Digital assets

Bitcoin has remained resilient despite persistent geopolitical tensions and has stabilised in recent weeks. The consolidation range established in summer 2024 continues to serve as an important support zone. While short-term market participants are increasingly exiting the market, committed long-term holders are using the current phase for strategic positioning. The derivatives markets continue to signal a defensive stance. Relative to altcoins, the environment remains clearly Bitcoin-dominated. Given the global macroeconomic backdrop, we continue to expect ongoing price consolidation and are therefore maintaining our neutral weighting.

TAA Plus Balanced CHF

Contact a client advisor for more information.

^{This publication is intended for information and marketing purposes only, and is not geared to the conclusion of a contract. It only contains the market and investment commentaries of Maerki Baumann & Co. AG and an assessment of selected financial instruments. Consequently, this publication does not constitute investment advice or a specific individual investment recommendation, and is not an offer for the purchase or sale of investment instruments. Maerki Baumann & Co. AG does not provide legal or tax advice. In addition, Maerki Baumann & Co. AG accepts no liability whatsoever for the content of this document; in particular, it does not accept any liability for losses of any kind, whether direct, indirect or incidental, which may be incurred as a result of using the information contained in this document and/or arising from the risks inherent in the financial markets. Maerki Baumann & Co. AG holds a Swiss banking license issued by the Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA).}

Editorial deadline: 15 April 2026

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