Economic activity in Europe has recently been stronger than had been expected by the market consensus, with this also holding true for Switzerland. The Eurozone economy is benefiting from strengthening industrial activity driven by greater investment. This, in turn, is supporting both the euro and the employment situation. Inflation is being fuelled by higher energy prices, which has led to the European Central Bank (ECB) deciding in favour of a further hike in key interest rates. The US economy is holding steady thanks to rising levels of capital investment that are not confined to the AI segment. At the same time, consumer spending is showing a growing divide between higher- and lower-income households, with the latter facing reduced spending power due to higher prices at the petrol pump. The economic picture in China is mixed: strong export growth, weak consumption.

Currencies

The Swiss franc has weakened despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. This is chiefly due to the low interest rate environment in Switzerland and the clear interest rate disadvantage relative to other currency areas. In addition, demand for the Swiss franc as a safe haven has remained limited. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is also expected to counter excessive appreciation, limiting the upside potential of the Swiss franc for the time being.

Bonds

Long-term bond yields have risen significantly in many major markets since the turn of the year and, in some cases, have hit multi-year highs. Key drivers include increasing government funding requirements as well as substantial capital needs for investments in artificial intelligence and the associated infrastructure. At the same time, higher defence spending, the energy transition and deglobalisation may contribute to persistent inflationary pressure, thereby limiting the scope of national banks for marked interest rate cuts. Overall, there are strong reasons to expect long-term interest rates to remain elevated for the moment. Credit spreads on corporate bonds remain tight overall, however, as the lion’s share of issuers continue to be in a solid position. In light of the volatile market environment, we remain defensively positioned. We continue to maintain our tactical underweight position in bonds and have a shorter duration profile relative to the benchmark.

TAA Balanced CHF

Real estate

Numerous real estate companies have published their half-year results, which were generally solid and confirmed the robust fundamentals of the Swiss real estate market. At the same time, high valuations and limited return potential have led to a degree of caution among investors. However, the still defensive market environment generally supports a positive outlook for Swiss real estate investments. Expected returns remain above those offered by bonds, while valuations still offer catch-up potential relative to equities. Against this backdrop, we are maintaining our overweight position in Swiss real estate investments.

Equities

Swiss equities continue to provide stability thanks to the high quality and defensive characteristics of many companies. However, the global interest rate environment, with recently rising yields, is making for challenging market conditions. At the same time, economic and interest rate risks remain key factors influencing future performance. Global equities have recently posted modest gains. Yet higher bond yields, persistent inflationary pressure, elevated oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on the markets. Valuations have come down somewhat but remain at an elevated level, especially in the US. Solid earnings expectations support a neutral positioning, while the interest rate environment argues against a more aggressive stance. Low-volatility equities are likely to prove relatively stable in the event of a market correction. Overall, our equity allocation continues to be neutral. Within the allocation, our focus remains on selected Swiss companies and, globally, on low-volatility US equities.

Commodities

Gold prices have retreated slightly in recent times, pressured by rising US bond yields. However, robust demand from central banks, particularly in China, as well as purchases by institutional investors, continue to provide support. The long-term investment case for gold therefore remains intact, although higher yields are currently acting as a headwind. The broader commodities market performed positively overall, with this being particularly true in the case of energy and industrial metals. Energy prices benefited from uncertainty surrounding global supply security, while industrial metals received support from the recovery in Chinese demand. Agricultural commodities also advanced. A de-escalation of the situation in the Middle East could lead to a correction, especially with respect to the energy markets. We are maintaining our neutral positioning in gold and commodities overall.

Private markets

Private markets still require a selective approach despite a gradual recovery. Transaction market activity is improving slowly, while liquidity conditions remain challenging for investors. Capital continues to flow primarily to established managers with clear differentiation and sustainable value creation strategies. In the private equity space, operational value creation is becoming increasingly significant, as corporate earnings are now becoming more important than value expansion. AI remains an important influence, particularly in the technology sector. Private credit continues to be attractive, with credit selection quality, solid structuring and experienced managers being key factors. We are therefore maintaining our existing allocation.

Digital assets

Bitcoin continues to stabilise. Despite higher market interest rates, the technical picture remains constructive, as Bitcoin continues to trade above its 200-week and 10-month averages. On-chain data also remains positive: institutional purchases continue to exceed newly mined supply, while miners are selling less. Overall, the backdrop remains positive. Due to higher interest rates and geopolitical risks, we are maintaining our neutral positioning in this challenging market environment.

TAA Plus Balanced CHF

Contact a client advisor for more information.

^{This publication is intended for information and marketing purposes only, and is not geared to the conclusion of a contract. It only contains the market and investment commentaries of Maerki Baumann & Co. Ltd. and an assessment of selected financial instruments. Consequently, this publication does not constitute investment advice or a specific individual investment recommendation, and is not an offer for the purchase or sale of investment instruments. Maerki Baumann & Co. Ltd. does not provide legal or tax advice. In addition, Maerki Baumann & Co. Ltd. accepts no liability whatsoever for the content of this document; in particular, it does not accept any liability for losses of any kind, whether direct, indirect or incidental, which may be incurred as a result of using the information contained in this document and/or arising from the risks inherent in the financial markets. Maerki Baumann & Co. Ltd. holds a Swiss banking license issued by the Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA).}

Editorial deadline: 18 September 2026

Maerki Baumann & Co. Ltd.
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T +41 44 286 25 25, info@maerki-baumann.ch
www.maerki-baumann.ch